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UCLouvain Economics Seminar - Romuald Méango, Munich Center for the Economics of the Aging
By UCLouvain Economics Seminar

Romuald Méango

Munich Center for the Economics of the Aging

will give a presentation on

The (Option-)value of Overstaying


The objective of this paper is to calculate asylum seekers’ex antereturns onoverstaying when their application is rejected. It takes advantage of a uniquesurvey designed to permit estimation of a structural model about the decision tooverstay. The proposed model sees this decision as a utility maximization problemwith uncertainty about the final choice. The paper proposes mild conditions fornonparametric identification of several objects of interest, including populationdistribution ofex antepecuniary benefits, non-pecuniary costs, surpluses, andoption-value created by the chance of becoming regularized in the future. Estimationis conducted using a semiparametric estimation procedure on a sample of Afghanasylum seekers.Ex antesurpluses of overstaying are predominantly positive butvery heterogeneous in the population. The pecuniary benefits explain a modestpart of these surpluses. In contrast, the option-value and the cost associated witha deportation are important components of the expected returns. Afghan asylumseekers are ready to spend a long time with a precarious status to eventually obtainthe right to stay and the amenities associated with it.

Link to the seminar

Meeting ID: 920 3186 2016

Access code: 444050

28 January
9:15 - 10:15